Good afternoon, Chairman Gilchrest, Chairman Ehlers, and Chairman Smith, members of the subcommittees and staff. My name is Scott Gudes, and I am the Acting Administrator and Deputy Under Secretary of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). It is my great pleasure to be here this afternoon to testify on three important topics that are at the core of NOAA's mission–ocean exploration, coastal observations and ocean observations. NOAA believes that these three topics are components of one mission-to understand the complex dynamics-physical, biological and geochemical-that shape the world's oceans and Great Lakes. History shows us that voyages of discovery–like Charles Darwin's expedition on the HMS BEAGLE, are often followed by longer term observation and monitoring efforts. I expect that our initial exploration efforts will also be followed by the implementation of ocean and coastal observing systems which will routinely collect, record and transmit data on the state of our fragile ocean and coastal regions. Conversely, I expect that our coastal and ocean observing systems will uncover secrets or anomalies that are beyond our ability to decipher and must be investigated further by targeted voyages of exploration.

Ocean Exploration

Thirty-one years ago, the Stratton Commission proposed the creation of an agency that we know today as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. In their final set of recommendations, the Stratton Commission included an entire chapter that indicated that this new ocean agency should develop U.S. leadership in ocean exploration. Over the last three decades, NOAA has successfully pursued a course of ocean management, ocean resource protection, and of primarily management-focused ocean research and monitoring. Much of our resources are consistently directed toward specific resource crises, and narrow scientific investigations. As a result, we know a lot about a few things, such as specific fish stocks and coastal water quality, but we actually know very little of our total oceans. Ocean science experts tell us that we have seen only five percent of the world's ocean, and that the U.S. lags behind Japan, France, and Russia in our technical ability to explore and study it in at least one dimension, sending scientists into the sea. The challenge of fulfilling the original Stratton Commission vision, of a NASA-like exploration of the sea component, remains to be filled. The President has requested $14 million for NOAA's ocean exploration activities in FY 2002 and these funds would provide NOAA with a solid start on fulfilling the Stratton Commission's original vision of exploring the seas.

In FY 2000, the President convened a panel that included some of the Nation's best ocean scientists, explorers, and educators. The panel, convened as a subset of the NOAA Science Advisory Board, was ably led by Dr. Marcia McNutt of the Monterey Bay Research Aquarium Institute and included Dr. Robert D. Ballard. The Panel's report, "Discovering Earth's Final Frontier: A U.S. Strategy for Ocean Exploration," recommended a new era of exploration which could become as remarkable and ambitious a chapter in the history of human exploration of our planet as were the achievements of Balboa, Columbus, or Lewis and Clark. While stressing the importance of partnerships, the panel recommended that a single lead agency be responsible for the program and its budget. NOAA, with over thirty years of experience in ocean science, management, and stewardship, has already stepped into a leadership role by requesting and receiving funding specifically to establish a program of ocean exploration and has established the NOAA Office of Ocean Exploration. I believe that NOAA has a significant leadership role to play in ocean exploration and in implementing the President's Panel Report recommendations.

The American public seems to agree that we need to focus more effort on exploring the oceans. In 1996, the Mellman Group conducted a nationwide survey to better understand the public's view of ocean policy issues. The results of that survey indicated that more than 80 percent of Americans believe our oceans are threatened by human activity, and 85 percent agree with the statement that the "federal government needs to do more to help protect the oceans." Seventy-five percent believe ocean exploration is more important than space exploration. With a $4 million appropriation in FY 2001, Congress endorsed the need for such a program; NOAA created a dedicated program, the Office of Ocean Exploration. The Administration has reaffirmed the requirement and requested $14 million in the FY 2002 President's budget. I am hopeful that as this budget makes its way through the Congress that the full amount is enacted. Clearly, most of us agree on the need to explore and understand this most important component of our planet and on the enormous impact it may have on all aspects of our daily lives.

The U.S. Panel on Ocean Exploration

First, and foremost, NOAA is the Nation's ocean and atmospheric agency and was created for that specific purpose. We have been given the responsibility for the focused study of the oceans and atmosphere and for the application of these findings to fulfill our stewardship role. As such, we are responsible in a clear and direct chain of command to the Cabinet level of the Executive Branch, the Secretary of Commerce, and enjoy the benefit of constructive guidance from multiple Congressional oversight committees. Our agency focus is to generate sound scientific knowledge and apply it to ocean and atmospheric issues. In this regard, we fill the appropriate role defined by the Panel as a focused lead ocean agency and accountable for results.

We are not alone in the ocean community, and we certainly do not work alone. Other agencies, such as the Navy and the National Science Foundation, are responsible for much larger subject matter areas and, perhaps, more challenging missions. The Navy goes to sea to understand that component of ocean science that will benefit our national security and keep our Nation safe. The National Science Foundation conducts scientific investigations in all environments, including the ocean, to promote the progress of science, generating valuable knowledge wherever it is found. Partnership institutions, such as the National Oceanographic Partnership Program (NOPP), serve valuable coordinating and implementation roles for such multilateral projects as the Argo Project, in further technology development, and in the coordinated handling and processing of oceanographic data. We look forward to addressing the data management and availability issues raised by the Panel through the National Oceanographic Partnership Program. We are also working through the National Oceanographic Partnership Program to achieve an ocean observation system. The role NOAA can fill in a national ocean exploration strategy is one of leadership. We responded to the challenge of the President's Panel by instituting a national program, embracing multiple partners of many disciplines, and creating the NOAA Office of Ocean Exploration.

NOAA's Response to the Report of the President's Panel on Ocean Exploration

The NOAA Ocean Exploration program identifies unknown areas of the ocean and seeks to reduce this information deficit. Specifically, the program targets the oceans in areas or subject matter that is missed or bypassed by our current management-focused science and subject matter driven research programs. The science activity in NOAA today, and largely throughout our thirty-year history, has been targeted to answer specific and necessary questions to support climate prediction, fisheries management, resource recovery, safe navigation, and environmental monitoring. NOAA's Ocean Exploration program takes a broader approach to scientific inquiry and subject matter, as the President's Panel suggested. We conduct multidisciplinary scientific expeditions to characterize ocean areas with modern technologies, employ sound scientific methodologies, and convey these results in an exciting and informative manner to the science community and the general public. The knowledge gained through exploration will extend our ability to conduct more focused research on a wider array of subjects and better perform our overall mission of ocean stewardship.

This year, FY 2001, we are engaged in a number of multidisciplinary expeditions in the manner suggested by the Panel Report. We are examining benthic communities along the east coast with the submersible Alvin. We are teaming up with the National Geographic Society to document the marine sanctuaries from Belize, through the Gulf of Mexico, to Cape Hatteras. At Cape Hatteras, with the U.S. Navy, we are rescuing the steam engine and turret of the famed Civil War ironclad, the USS Monitor, now a National Marine Sanctuary. And we are engaging some of the best technology in what I would describe as a definitional exploration cruise, in the Astoria Canyon. This is the basin into which the Columbia River flows, and where Lewis and Clark ended their amazing journey of discovery. We begin ours there. Using a commercial survey ship with multibeam and high frequency side-scan sonar, we have mapped the bottom at a new scale of resolution. The cruise will be completed tomorrow with the arrival in port of the NOAA Ship Ronald H. Brown, which has carried NOAA and university scientists with expertise in biology, geology, and geophysics, and the Canadian Remotely Operated Vehicle, ROPOS, which will have visually explored the canyon areas identified in the sonar surveys. The combination of these tools and combined disciplines will enable a more complete understanding of this dynamic part of the ocean that, although close to shore, is scarcely explored. We have several other projects underway, but I would prefer to return and report on their completion at an appropriate time and turn now to our implementation of the President's Panel Report.

Principal Objectives of the President's Panel on Ocean Exploration

The President's Panel on Ocean Exploration provided four principal objectives for a national strategy to achieve an invigorated ocean exploration program. These were: to map the physical, geological, biological, chemical, and archaeological aspects of the oceans; to explore ocean dynamics and interactions; to develop new sensors and systems for ocean exploration and regain U.S. leadership in marine technology; and to reach out in new ways to stakeholders.

Mapping: The Panel's recommendation to map the oceans is squarely within NOAA's domain, at least so far as the Nation's Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) is concerned. NOAA's precursor agency, the Coast Survey, was responsible for charting the Nation's marine waters, and NOAA continues this mission today. The United States has the largest EEZ of any nation in the world, over three million square nautical miles, but only five percent of the U.S. EEZ is mapped. As such, we agree with the Panel report's suggestion that NOAA increase its efforts to chart and map the Nation's EEZ.

Exploring ocean dynamics: The Panel identified the need to explore ocean dynamics and interactions at new scales. Our sampling methodologies, regularly applied throughout our decades-long data streams, do not fully sample the biota of the ocean. We use techniques that have only slightly advanced in the previous hundred years. While incremental progress in acoustic surveys continues, an invigorated ocean exploration initiative would allow the United States to become a leader in the use of this promising technology. NOAA is working with multiple institutions and agencies to explore the dynamics of submarine regions, such as deep sea hydrothermal vents, through partnerships with universities and the National Science Foundation. The President has requested funding that would allow NOAA to work collaboratively with the larger scientific community.

New technologies: The Panel identified the need to develop new sensors, technologies, and platforms. The merit of this recommendation is apparent. We clearly need new and improved technologies, devices, and craft to take our exploration of the oceans to a point not only beyond where we are today, but to a position of regained international leadership, a position we have lost. NOAA is working to advance undersea technologies through Ocean Exploration, the National Sea Grant Program, and the National Undersea Research Program (NURP). We look forward to working with academia, industry and the National Oceanographic Partnership Program to develop the new ocean sensors and technologies that the Panel recommended.

Education and outreach: The Panel recommended that ocean exploration reach out in new ways to stakeholders. Our own website, oceanexplorer.noaa.gov, has already proven a great success with thousands of students of all ages around the world tuning in, even though most schools have not even been in session since it launched on June 1 of this year. NOAA is allocating ten percent of our Ocean Exploration budget to education and outreach. I consider the education and outreach component of the ocean exploration program to be essential to the success of this initiative.

New Approaches and the Future of Ocean Exploration

The President's Panel also stressed the importance of partnerships for pooling limited resources and multiplying the accomplishments achieved from ocean exploration activities. We have engaged the university community, private industry, and other government agencies and services. In fact, less than half of NOAA's $4 million appropriation in FY 2001 for ocean exploration activities remained "in house" the remainder passed through the agency to the private sector, academia, or other agencies. We have chartered or engaged nine vessels belonging to the private sector or other agencies for our Ocean Exploration missions this summer. Those vessels ranged from University-National Oceanographic Laboratory System (UNOLS) sources, such as the Harbor Branch Oceanographic Institution, the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, and Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute, to commercial fishing vessels, private survey ships, and a commercial diving barge. We also gained support and participation from an EPA ship and two Navy salvage ships. This demonstrates NOAA's desire to work cross-agency, collegially, and through meaningful partnerships.

The President's Panel recommended several opportunities and implementation strategies, and I have detailed how NOAA is responding to these challenges. But NOAA is also embarking on exploration activities that will be based on the needs defined, in part, by the larger scientific community. Beginning in the fall of 2001, we will conduct a series of at least 6 regional planning workshops in the northeast, southeast, Gulf coast, west coast, Alaska, and Hawaii. Through this geographic distribution, we will learn from an integrated body of participants from academia, industry, and other government agencies about local and regional informational needs. We will identify those needs and knowledge deficits, prioritize them, and thereby generate a strategic plan and implementation agenda of exploring our oceans and the oceans of the world. The value of these workshops will be to represent the collective wisdom and experience of the combined scientific and technical communities and not those singularly in NOAA. I am confident that the product will be a well supported agenda of exploration.

In FY 2002, we will continue to take projects to sea and, hopefully, at a level supported by the funds requested in the President's budget. Much of this effort will be proposal driven and result from the peer review of proposals submitted by scientists and explorers from government, industry, and academia. The emphasis of this research and discovery-based science will be in five thematic areas: (1) New Ocean Resources – in which we seek to discover living and non-living resources that may have a significant beneficial potential, such as gas hydrates or bio-prospecting; (2) Exploring Ocean Acoustics – to expand the network of hydrophones monitoring marine sound of natural and human origin, thereby determining the effects of noise on marine animals, developing new methods of counting and identifying whales, and accomplishing the early detection of underwater seismic activity; (3) America's Maritime Heritage – in which we will survey, locate, and inventory shipwrecks and archeological sites of historic interest, plus compile a National Shipwreck Inventory from which we can make informed management decisions; (4) Exploring Ocean Frontiers – for which we will employ modern technology to survey, characterize, and define diverse marine environments and the processes therein, particularly in areas not well known or understood; and (5) Census of Marine Life – in which we will join global academic and government institutions in collecting data on the distribution and abundance of marine organisms and improve our assessment capabilities.

NOAA led the effort to support and staff the President's Panel on Ocean Exploration. NOAA is the dedicated ocean agency of the Nation and is currently the only Federal agency administering and requesting specific funds for an ocean exploration program. We understand mapping. We have been doing it since 1807. We understand partnership. More than half of our appropriation for ocean exploration is being spent outside of NOAA, and our projects sail on ships other than NOAA vessels. We understand and support ocean education and outreach through such partners as the Jason Foundation, the National Geographic Society, and such esteemed ocean leaders as Dr. Robert Ballard, Dr. Sylvia Earle, and Jean Michel Cousteau. NOAA has a role in implementing the President's Panel Report on Ocean Exploration. That role is one of leadership, as the ocean agency, and as the ocean exploration program. It is one we will not do alone. It is one we cannot do alone. For us to regain the leadership position in the world community of ocean science, we must continue to work with the other Federal agencies, academic institutions, and private-sector industries. Working together, our national ocean exploration efforts will yield even greater results.

President Bush recently announced his intention to appoint 16 distinguished individuals to serve on the Commission on Ocean Policy. The Oceans Act of 2000 tasks this Commission to develop a report over the next 18 months to address a very broad range of oceans policy issues. These include existing and planned activities of State and Federal entities, facilities associated with private and public activities, and ocean and coastal resources. We look forward to following the efforts of the Commission and to working with other agencies to develop the National Ocean Policy required by the Act once the Commission completes its report.

Coastal Observations

I would now like to address the Subcommittee's request for information on developing and implementing a system of compatible coastal observatories. Throughout history people have had many reasons to settle by our coasts, and they have long recognized that the oceans critically affect human endeavors. Cargo, fishing, and military ships have always been affected by winds, waves, ice, ocean currents, as well as hurricanes and typhoons. Primitive observing systems were initiated centuries ago to measure and try to predict these phenomena.

As uses of the ocean and coastal waters increase, evidence of widespread impacts of these activities on land, the oceans, and the atmosphere is steadily mounting. These interrelated earth systems have been strongly affected by the direct and indirect consequences of human population growth, industrialization, and demand for natural resources. It is increasingly evident that changes in the environment need to be monitored, that effective action must be taken to mitigate damage based on these measurements, and that future changes to the environment must be anticipated.

A sustained coastal ocean observation program to detect, track, and predict changes in physical and biological systems and their effects is needed to measure not only the impacts of humans on the ocean, but also the impact of the ocean on human endeavors. The oceans are currently monitored far less effectively and completely than terrestrial systems; yet humans depend strongly on the sea as a source of food and for transportation and trade, among many other uses. Such a program would build upon integrated existing monitoring efforts by both government and academia.

NOAA's mission is to describe and predict changes in the Earth's environment and conserve and wisely manage the Nation's coastal and marine resources. An integrated coastal observing system is needed to monitor the "state" of the coastal ocean in order to understand and ultimately predict how the coastal ocean responds to weather, climate, and human activities. Just as continuous measurements of weather and climatic conditions are maintained on land, similar sustained measurements of the coastal ocean are required to monitor change and to assist in understanding and predicting its impacts.

It must be noted that there are already many U.S. coastal observing systems and monitoring programs in place that serve the needs of many users. It is equally important to state that these observing elements are not yet integrated and do not constitute a complete system. The systems provide data that help mitigate losses to life and property, enhance profits to industry, ensure national security, and provide information to mitigate anthropogenic changes to the environment. They are not, however, as cost effective or as useful as they could be, even at present levels of funding. These elements do not serve the complete needs of users. The Congress recognized these gaps and, in 1992, passed the National Coastal Monitoring Act calling for "a comprehensive national program for monitoring of the Nation's coastal ecosystems." However, lack of funding has limited progress. Today, growing needs add urgency, and advancing technologies make major improvements possible. An integrated coastal ocean observing system would serve better a much wider array of users.

There are many indications that coastal environments are experiencing rapid changes as a consequence of human activities. These include habitat loss and modification (e.g., wetlands, coral reefs, oyster reefs), coastal erosion, excessive accumulations of algal biomass, oxygen depletion, harmful algal events, fish kills, shellfish bed closures, declines in fish stocks, the growth of exotic species, chemical contamination, and the loss of biodiversity. These changes are making the coastal zone more susceptible to natural hazards, more costly to live and recreate in, and of less value to the national economy.

In the absence of scientific understanding of coastal ecosystems and how they change in response to human activities and natural variability, the formulation and implementation of environmental policies has become, and likely will be increasingly, controversial. Substantial advances in the predictive understanding of environmental changes in coastal ecosystems and their effects on people cannot be achieved in the absence of long-term and large-scale observations.

Nowhere do the missions of so many Federal and state agencies overlap as in the coastal zone, and this region is the subject of more monitoring and research activity than any other place on Earth. Yet we still do not have a predictive understanding how people are changing the environment and how these changes are affecting people (e.g., wetland loss and coastal flooding, hog manure and Pfiesteria).

Clearly, we must make more effective use of the combined resources/assets of Federal and state agencies (environmental monitoring for the purposes of research and management, fisheries stock assessment, habitat surveys, etc.), the private sector, and academia to get a clearer picture of the dimensions of change and make more timely and meaningful forecasts of changes and their impact.

The first step is to coordinate and integrate existing efforts to collect, manage and analyze data to minimize redundancy, maximize access to diverse data, and produce timely analyses that are useful to a broader spectrum of users. The second step is to enhance and supplement the observing to achieve a more comprehensive and useful view of changes and their impact.

Benefits of an integrated coastal ocean observing system

An effective, efficient, and useful coastal ocean observing system would:

• facilitate safe and efficient marine operations, ensure national security, support managing living resources, preserve healthy marine ecosystems, mitigate natural hazards, and protect public health;

• build upon existing coastal and ocean monitoring and be responsive to the needs of those who depend on the Nation's coastal waters for work, security, research, and recreation;

• provide sustained, continuous, long-term, reliable, and, as appropriate, real-time observations and analysis of ocean events and phenomena;

• provide a common set of parameters deemed to be in the national interest, using uniform methods and protocols, with augmentation as desired by regional and local concerns;

• provide a consistent national framework for regional efforts yet allow for flexible design at all levels; and

• engage and support a wide range of participants from Federal, state, and local governments; academia; and the private sector.

Future Plans and Needs of an integrated coastal ocean observing system:

The first step in establishing a comprehensive coastal ocean observing system is to integrate existing data and networks and provide access to this data. Working through NOPP and the OCEAN.US Office, NOAA could coordinate with components offered by other Federal Agencies to provide the backbone of an integrated coastal ocean observing system. This effort could be initiated with coastal elements of existing national networks and could support additional National needs and/or needs identified through the regional efforts.
NOAA currently operates several relevant monitoring and observing systems that would contribute to this backbone for coastal ocean observing system. These include:

National Water Level Observation Network (NWLON), which includes approximately 175 continuously operating water level measurement systems, providing basic water level data for all coastal and Great Lakes states.

Physical Oceanographic Real-Time Systems (PORTS) operating at five extremely busy harbor entrances, provide measurements from water levels, currents, meteorological data, and water temperature in real time.

National Data Buoy Network provides real-time data on the sea state and meteorological conditions at buoys in the Great Lakes and coastal ocean, and the 60 shore-based Coastal-Marine Automated Network (C-MAN) stations provide similar information to NOAA, state, and private weather forecasters.

National Status and Trends Program measures the status and changes in levels and effects of toxic contaminants at about 280 locations in the U.S. Coastal and Great Lakes ecosystems. In addition, temporal trends are being monitored through the Mussel Watch project that analyzes mussels and oysters collected annually at about 200 of those sites.

National Estuarine Research Reserve System (NERRS) System-Wide Monitoring Program (SWMP) monitors physical, chemical, and biological parameters at each of the 27 Reserves, covering over one million acres of estuarine waters and lands. The President's Request for a $1.7 million increase for NERRS operational grants will help expand the SWMP by increasing spatial coverage of water quality stations, and by monitoring additional biological indicators.

Harmful Algal Boom monitoring program works in conjunction with states and other Federal agencies to monitor levels of toxic algae, including Pfiesteria, and related water quality properties to determine the threat posed to human health and the ecosystem by this organism.

Tsunami Warning Sytem (TWS) in the Pacific, comprised of 26 participating international Member States, monitors seismological and tidal stations throughout the Pacific Basin, providing real-time information needed for the early detection of tsunamis and for assessing and forecasting the threat to coastal communities.

Land-cover and Habitat mapping. The Coastal Change Analysis Program (C-CAP), Effects of Fishing on Essential Fish Habitat (EFH), and Seafloor EFH Characterizations programs provide routine observations on the habitats of managed species.

Long-term ecosystem data collection programs, including the California Cooperative Fisheries Investigation (CalCoFI), the Marine Monitoring and Assessment Program (MARMAP) in the Northwest Atlantic, SEAMAP in the Southeast U.S., and the Fisheries Oceanography and GLOBEC programs in the Pacific Northwest, Gulf of Alaska, Bering Sea, and Gulf of Maine provide essential information on abundance and distribution of marine fish and invertebrates, and environmental changes which affect them.

CoastWatch provides near real-time access to high-resolution satellite remote sensing data from NOAA and other platforms, including sea surface temperature and ocean color.

The second step of a strong integrated National coastal ocean observation program would be support for a federation of regional observing systems that could provide additional full national coverage at higher-resolution, tuned to regional issues. These regional systems would collect and exchange data on a free and open basis and according to national standards and protocols. These regional enterprises composed of consortia of state, academic, private, and Federal partners would be most effective in understanding and responding to the needs of the regional users. Working with NOAA's national data centers, these regional efforts would also ensure that their observations are made available for long-term stewardship.

The third, equally important step is a strong Data Management and Data Sharing effort. This would include working with all of the relevant data stakeholders to develop standards and protocols for storing, sharing, and accessing coastal data. This should include protocols for the transfer of data among regional and national backbone systems, the user community, and a national repository; as well as the documentation of data type and quality via approved metadata standards. A key component of the data management program should be a coastal data portal through which users from all sectors should find, view, access, integrate, and share data from national, regional, state, and academic sources regardless of original formats. NOAA's National Environmental Satellites, Data, and Information Service and National Ocean Service stand ready to provide its extensive expertise and experience in data management, sharing, and archiving to all of its partners in this effort.

These enhanced coastal observation systems would serve as the basis for two programs. The first is a concept we are working with our partners to develop an ecological forecasting capability to parallel our weather and climate forecasting service. Ecological forecasts predict the effects of biological, chemical, physical, and human-induced changes on ecosystems and the components. Being able to forecast, for example, harmful algal bloom outbreaks, the impacts of decisions on coastal hypoxia (dead zones), the impacts of water use on oysters and other estuarine species, the impacts of changes in the distribution of precipitation and temperature on coastal habitats all depend on a robust and sustained observation system. Data from this system are required to both drive the forecasting process and test the forecasts against the real world.

The second is an initiative called Coastal Storms, for which we are asking $3 million in the President's FY2002 Budget to do a pilot project in Florida. Coastal Storms proposes to build on and enhance existing coastal observation systems such as our National Water Level Observation Network and Physical Oceanographic Real Time System, to help dramatically reduce the loss of property and life in regions vulnerable to natural disasters. Recent estimates for disaster losses are between $10 and $50 billion per year, with an average cost of $50 million an event. Over 70% of disaster losses occur in coastal states or territories and much of this damage occurs in inland areas adjacent to the coast resulting in costly impacts throughout coastal watersheds. Coastal Storms will enable NOAA to provide an integrated suite of capabilities that capitalize on our coastal observations to predict and reduce the watershed impacts of coastal storms.

Partnerships

NOAA is committed to working with other agencies, academia, and the private sector in arrangements such as the National Oceanographic Partnership Program (NOPP) to make this coastal observing system a reality. NOAA worked hard with other agencies to facilitate the implementation of the NOPP Observation Office, OCEAN.US, for the coordination of these efforts. A strong partnership would allow each organization to execute its own research and/or operational-driven mission while deriving maximum benefit from interagency coordination.

Ocean Observations

Now I'd like to turn to a different category of ocean activities, in particular the essential observations necessary for understanding and predicting the ocean's role in climate. Last month, the President announced a new Climate Change Initiative, dedicated to reducing uncertainties in climate change knowledge and identifying priority areas where research can make a difference. Clearly, our observations of the ocean will be a major factor in clarifying the future course of climate change.

An important difference between ocean observations for climate and those for exploration is the sustained nature of the data collection. A useful analog is the system we use to observe the weather. We could not expect to predict the weather based on an occasional weather balloon or an intermittent Doppler radar image. It is necessary to keep the system going to see change on the horizon. Similarly, an ocean observing system must be sustained to see a developing El Niño or longer-term changes in ocean circulation that will influence the evolution of climate.

We have known for some time that we must observe the ocean to predict the course of climate, and NOAA has a strong track record in this endeavor. In 1997-98, the strong El Niño and its effects on the U.S. and the world were anticipated well in advance. By contrast, an El Niño of similar strength in 1982-83 was largely a surprise to the world. The difference in predictive skill was largely the result of an ocean observing system deployed in the tropical Pacific, together with the understanding and computer model development that was the result of decades of research. This provides the basis for our ocean observing system of today.

The Present System

Presently NOAA's major ocean observation system, centered on the tropics and designed to enhance climate prediction on seasonal to interannual time-scales, is the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Observing System. The ENSO Observing System has four elements. It consists of approximately 70 fixed buoys in the tropical Pacific that provide surface atmospheric and ocean mixed-layer observations, several hundred drifting buoys in all of the major ocean basins, a Volunteer Observing Ship (VOS) program of about 40 commercial ships, and a network of tide gauges. NOAA recently expanded the fixed buoy system to the tropical Atlantic sector, and has maintained a monitoring system for the Florida Current for many years. The resulting data are used to initialize climate models, verify model results, and monitor the changes in the upper ocean. Complementing this system are NOAA's environmental satellite systems, which provide regional and basin-wide observations of sea surface temperature and estimates of rainfall.

There is also an emerging observational system – called the Argo Array – that, in combination with satellite remote sensing, will provide the backbone of sustained global ocean observations needed to improve climate forecast skill. Argo will consist of three thousand autonomous instruments that can change their buoyancy to rise or sink in the ocean. Argo builds on the observations, extending their spatial and temporal coverage, depth range and accuracy, and enhancing them through addition of other measurements. For the first time, the physical state of the upper ocean will be systematically measured in near real-time and used in models.

Here's how Argo works. The instruments cycle to depths up to 2000 meters every ten days, travel submerged for a specified period, then surface and relay data to satellites about the ocean temperature, salinity, and currents. Each instrument has a four to five-year lifetime. With a design based on experience from the present observing system and on estimated requirements for climate and high-resolution ocean models, Argo will provide 100,000 temperature and salinity profiles and reference velocity measurements per year from the 3000 floats distributed over the global oceans. All Argo data will be publicly available in near real-time and in scientifically quality-controlled form within a few months. Essentially, the Argo array will be the ocean analog of the radiosonde – or weather balloon – system; it will initiate the oceanic equivalent of today's operational observing system for the global atmosphere.

Objectives of Argo fall into several categories. Argo will provide a quantitative description of the evolving state of the upper ocean and the patterns of ocean climate variability, including heat and freshwater storage and transport. The data will enhance the value of NASA's Jason altimeter through measurement of subsurface vertical structure and reference velocity, with sufficient coverage and resolution for interpretation of altimetric sea-surface height variability. Argo data will be used for initialization of ocean and coupled forecast models, data assimilation, and dynamical model testing. A primary focus of Argo is seasonal-to-decadal climate variability and predictability, but a wide range of applications for high-quality global ocean analyses is anticipated. The Argo program will be coordinated through the National Ocean Partnership Program described earlier.

The current proposal before Congress includes a requested funding increase of $3,190,000 for the Argo system as part of the Climate Observations and Service budget. These new funds will allow NOAA to reach an annual deployment rate of about 275 floats. With an annual expected loss rate of 10 percent, this level of funding will bring the U.S. to the 1000 float target that is the U.S. contribution to the international goal of 3000 floats by FY 2005. Other nations will contribute the majority of the system.

In addition to Argo, the other components of the sustained ocean observing system being requested in NOAA's $7.3 million initiative include the following:

Ocean Reference Stations: NOAA plans to implement a global network of ocean reference station moorings, expanding from the present three pilot stations to a permanent network of 16. These fixed buoys provide the long-term record of ocean climate, often at sites with long historical records.

Volunteer Observing Ships: Ships of opportunity provide global atmospheric and oceanic data that is the foundation for understanding long-term changes in marine climate. The data are also essential input for climate and weather forecast models. VOS need improved monitoring capabilities, better observer training, and improved data quality in order to reduce both systematic and random errors. NOAA wants to expand operations from 17 to 22 shipping lines over the next five years.

Ocean Carbon: Cross-ocean sections measuring dissolved ocean carbon were taken during the World Ocean Circulation Experiment of the last decade. It is critical for our understanding of the global carbon cycle to ensure that the long-line measurements of ocean carbon are maintained so that we can see any changes in carbon dioxide uptake by the oceans.

Arctic Ocean Fluxes: Over the past 20 or more years, significant changes have been noted in the Arctic, such as thawing of permafrost, earlier break-up of ice on rivers, and thinning of the ice cover on the Arctic Ocean. Recent studies conclude that changes seen in the extent of the Arctic ice are unlikely to have been caused by natural variability. In partnership with other Federal agencies, NOAA proposes to begin a long-term effort to quantify the flux of "fresh" water from the Arctic to the North Atlantic. An international team has identified five key mooring sites suitable for a program of long-term observations.

Data Management: A robust system for managing data is essential to the vision of a sustained ocean observing system. The value of the observations does not end with their initial use in detecting and forecasting present conditions. The data must be retained and made available for retrospective analyses to understand climate change, and for managing observing system operations and improvements.

Data Assimilation: To make use of these observations, an enhanced program of assimilating the data into ocean models is required as well. This is similar to the process used in weather prediction models, where observations are used to give the best possible description of the atmosphere before running the prediction.

Future Plans and Needs: An Integrated, Sustained Ocean Observing System
The ocean system as envisioned internationally and by NOAA will include platforms and sensors (both remote and in-situ), data management, and assimilation and analyses. This end-to-end ocean system will provide the critical data and products needed for forecasts, research, and assessments. The ocean system will be effective only through continuing interaction with other national and international communities. To fulfil its responsibilities for providing climate services, NOAA will lead the U.S. effort to enhance its present components, establish new components, and maintain the global operational ocean observing system necessary to deliver needed forecasting and assessment services to the Nation and the world.

The present international observing effort is about 25% of what will be needed over the long term. An international plan for a comprehensive global ocean observing system was drafted by over 300 scientists from 26 nations in October, 1999. When completed, the composite ocean system, including the satellites, will deliver continuous, long term, climate quality, global data sets and a suite of routine ocean products:

· For the global ocean, four-times-daily distributions of sea surface pressure, sea surface wind, and marine weather and sea state conditions.
· For the global tropics, daily distributions of precipitation, sea surface temperature, and air-sea fluxes.
· For the global ocean, weekly distributions of upper ocean temperature and salinity, sea surface temperature, and sea level.
· For the global ocean, an ocean carbon inventory once every ten years and seasonal (four-times-yearly) analyses of the variability of ocean-atmosphere carbon exchange.
· At fixed climate reference stations, documented long term trends in sea level change and ocean/atmosphere variability.

These observing system deliverables comprise the essential raw data from the ocean that will be needed by the climate forecasters and researchers to help deliver assessments and predictions of climate, on time scales of seasonal to decadal and longer. In addition to completion of the Argo array, a system to deliver these products would require completion of the global drifting buoy network, establishment of an enhanced array of tide gauges for documenting sea level change, completion of ocean reference station moorings described above, and occupation of new volunteer observing ship lines. Completion of the U.S. array of coastal moorings, described in the previous section, will also be a critical part of the ocean observing system for climate. From the satellite perspective, continuous altimeter and scatterometer measurements will be needed for determination of global sea level and surface winds, respectively. Finally, the system-wide infrastructure requirements, including research vessels, data systems, and modeling capabilities, will need to be in place to support this system.

All Three Efforts Are Important

On a summer day, our eyes and ears can sense an approaching thunderstorm. Our senses are extended by radar and satellites to detect advancing storm systems. Our senses are being extended yet again to anticipate changing states affecting coasts and oceans, our environment, and our climate. To truly understand the consequences of our actions on the environment and the environment's impact on us, data obtained through ocean exploration, coastal observations, and ocean observations will be critical.

"Coastal observations" include observations in the Nation's ports, bays, estuaries, Great Lakes, the waters of the EEZ, and adjacent land cover. Some of the properties measured in coastal zones, such as temperature and currents, are the same as those measured in the larger, basin-scale ocean observation systems. However, the users and applications of those data can be quite different. For those properties that are similar, there should be a consistant plan for deployment in the coastal and open ocean systems so that coastal observations represent a nested hierarchy of observations collected at higher resolution than those from the open ocean.

As I mentioned earlier, NOAA is prepared to begin coordinating existing coastal observing data and networks working through NOPP and the OCEAN.US Office to provide the backbone of an integrated coastal ocean observing system.

Ocean exploration includes the examination of the temporal components of the sea, and that includes the long term monitoring of ocean characteristics, and an integrated ocean observation system. NOAA is engaged in multiple ocean observation programs already, and recognizes that an integrated ocean observation system is worthy of its own identity and will hold merit to future aspects of scientific inquiry.

Mr. Chairman, on behalf of Secretary Don Evans and the 12,500 men and women who make up NOAA, thank you for this opportunity to address how NOAA can contribute to expanding the frontiers of human knowledge. As I've stated, ocean exploration, ocean observations and coastal observations are at the core of NOAA's mission and we look forward to working with the Subcommittees on charting the future course of these important endeavors.